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## LINEAR DEMAND CURVE AND NON-CONSTANT PRICE ELASTICITY Answer

LINEAR DEMAND CURVE AND NON-CONSTANT PRICE ELASTICITY

The information on price elasticity is useful to see the effect of a change in price on sales. However, you should be careful to know the price elasticity in each price range, since elasticity is not constant along the demand curve.

EXAMPLE 3

We are given the following demand function: P = 10 – 2Q or Q = 5 – .5P

In the case of a linear demand function (See Figure 4), while the slope of a straight line demand curve is the same at all points, the elasticity for such a curve varies from one point to the next. The reason for this is that in the ep formula

1. dQ/ dP would be constant, but
2. P/Q would fall in the case of a move down and to the right.

TOTAL REVENUE AND PRICE ELASTICITY

Economists have established the following relationships between price elasticity (ep) and total revenue (TR), which can aid a firm in setting its price.

 Price ep > 1 ep = 1 ep < 1 Price rises TR falls No change TR rises Price falls TR Rises No change TR falls

General Approaches to Forecasting

All firms forecast demand, but it would be difficult to find any two firms that forecast demand in exactly the same way. Over the last few decades, many different forecasting techniques have been developed in a number of different application areas, including engineering and economics. Many such procedures have been applied to the practical problem of forecasting demand in a logistics system, with varying degrees of success. Most commercial software packages that support demand forecasting in a logistics system include dozens of different forecasting algorithms that the analyst can use to generate alternative demand forecasts. While scores of different forecasting techniques exist, almost any forecasting procedure can be broadly classified into one of the following four basic categories based on the fundamental approach towards the forecasting problem that is employed by the technique.

1. Judgmental Approaches. The essence of the judgmental approach is to address the forecasting issue by assuming that someone else knows and can tell you the right answer. That is, in a judgment-based technique we gather the knowledge and opinions of people who are in a position to know what demand will be. For example, we might conduct a survey of the customer base to estimate what our sales will be next month.

1. Experimental Approaches. Another approach to demand forecasting, which is appealing when an item is “new” and when there is no other information upon which to base a forecast, is to conduct a demand experiment on a small group of customers and to extrapolate the results to a larger population. For example, firms will often test a new consumer product in a geographically isolated “test market” to establish its probable market share. This experience is then extrapolated to the national market to plan the new product launch. Experimental approaches are very useful and necessary for new products, but for existing products that have an accumulated historical demand record it seems intuitive that demand forecasts should somehow be based on this demand experience. For most firms (with some very notable exceptions) the large majority of SKUs in the product line have long demand histories.

1. Relational/Causal Approaches. The assumption behind a causal or relational forecast is that, simply put, there is a reason why people buy our product. If we can understand what that reason (or set of reasons) is, we can use that understanding to develop a demand forecast. For example, if we sell umbrellas at a sidewalk stand, we would probably notice that daily demand is strongly correlated to the weather – we sell more umbrellas when it rains. Once we have established this relationship, a good weather forecast will help us order enough umbrellas to meet the expected demand.

1. “Time Series” Approaches. A time series procedure is fundamentally different than the first three approaches we have discussed. In a pure time series technique, no judgment or expertise or opinion is sought. We do not look for “causes” or relationships or factors which somehow “drive” demand. We do not test items or experiment with customers. By their nature, time series procedures are applied to demand data that are longitudinal rather than cross-sectional. That is, the demand data represent experience that is repeated over time rather than across items or locations. The essence of the approach is to recognize (or assume) that demand occurs over time in patterns that repeat themselves, at least approximately. If we can describe these general patterns or tendencies, without regard to their “causes”, we can use this description to form the basis of a forecast.

In one sense, all forecasting procedures involve the analysis of historical experience into patterns and the projection of those patterns into the future in the belief that the future will somehow resemble the past. The differences in the four approaches are in the way this “search for pattern” is conducted. Judgmental approaches rely on the subjective, ad-hoc analyses of external individuals. Experimental tools extrapolate results from small numbers of customers to large populations. Causal methods search for reasons for demand. Time series techniques simply analyze the demand data themselves to identify temporal patterns that emerge and persist.

Judgmental Approaches to Forecasting

By their nature, judgment-based forecasts use subjective and qualitative data to forecast future outcomes. They inherently rely on expert opinion, experience, judgment, intuition, conjecture, and other “soft” data. Such techniques are often used when historical data are not available, as is the case with the introduction of a new product or service, and in forecasting the impact of fundamental changes such as new technologies, environmental changes, cultural changes, legal changes, and so forth. Some of the more common procedures include the following:

Surveys: This is a “bottom up” approach where each individual contributes a piece of what will become the final forecast. For example, we might poll or sample our customer base to estimate demand for a coming period. Alternatively, we might gather estimates from our sales force as to how much each salesperson expects to sell in the next time period. The approach is at least plausible in the sense that we are asking people who are in a position to know something about future demand. On the other hand, in practice there have proven to be serious problems of bias associated with these tools. It can be difficult and expensive to gather data from customers. History also shows that surveys of “intention to purchase” will generally over-estimate actual demand – liking a product is one thing, but actually buying it is often quite another. Sales people may also intentionally (or even unintentionally) exaggerate or underestimate their sales forecasts based on what they believe their supervisors want them to say. If the sales force (or the customer base) believes that their forecasts will determine the level of finished goods inventory that will be available in the next period, they may be sorely tempted to inflate their demand estimates so as to insure good inventory availability. Even if these biases could be eliminated or controlled, another serious problem would probably remain. Sales people might be able to estimate their weekly dollar volume or total unit sales, but they are not likely to be able to develop credible estimates at the SKU level that the logistics system will require. For these reasons it will seldom be the case that these tools will form the basis of a successful demand forecasting procedure in a logistics system.

Consensus methods: As an alternative to the “bottom-up” survey approaches, consensus methods use a small group of individuals to develop general forecasts. In a “Jury of Executive Opinion”, for example, a group of executives in the firm would meet and develop through debate and discussion a general forecast of demand. Each individual would presumably contribute insight and understanding based on their view of the market, the product, the competition, and so forth. Once again, while these executives are undoubtedly experienced, they are hardly disinterested observers, and the opportunity for biased inputs is obvious. A more formal consensus procedure, called “The Delphi Method”, has been developed to help control these problems. In this technique, a panel of disinterested technical experts is presented with a questionnaire regarding a forecast. The answers are collected, processed, and re-distributed to the panel, making sure that all information contributed by any panel member is available to all members, but on an anonymous basis. Each expert reflects on the gathering opinion. A second questionnaire is then distributed to the panel, and the process is repeated until a consensus forecast is reached. Consensus methods are usually appropriate only for highly aggregate and usually quite long-range forecasts. Once again, their ability to generate useful SKU level forecasts is questionable, and it is unlikely that this approach will be the basis for a successful demand forecasting procedure in a logistics system.

Judgment-based methods are important in that they are often used to determine an enterprise’s strategy. They are also used in more mundane decisions, such as determining the quality of a potential vendor by asking for references, and there are many other reasonable applications. It is true that judgment based techniques are an inadequate basis for a demand forecasting system, but this should not be construed to mean that judgment has no role to play in logistics forecasting or that salespeople have no knowledge to bring to the problem. In fact, it is often the case that sales and marketing people have valuable information about sales promotions, new products, competitor activity, and so forth, which should be incorporated into the forecast somehow. Many organizations treat such data as additional information that is used to modify the existing forecast rather than as the baseline data used to create the forecast in the first place.

Experimental Approaches to Forecasting

In the early stages of new product development it is important to get some estimate of the level of potential demand for the product. A variety of market research techniques are used to this end.

Customer Surveys are sometimes conducted over the telephone or on street corners, at shopping malls, and so forth. The new product is displayed or described, and potential customers are asked whether they would be interested in purchasing the item. While this approach can help to isolate attractive or unattractive product features, experience has shown that “intent to purchase” as measured in this way is difficult to translate into a meaningful demand forecast. This falls short of being a true “demand experiment”.

Consumer Panels are also used in the early phases of product development. Here a small group of potential customers are brought together in a room where they can use the product and discuss it among themselves. Panel members are often paid a nominal amount for their participation. Like surveys, these procedures are more useful for analyzing product attributes than for estimating demand, and they do not constitute true “demand experiments” because no purchases take place.

Test Marketing is often employed after new product development but prior to a full-scale national launch of a new brand or product. The idea is to choose a relatively small, reasonably isolated, yet somehow demographically “typical” market area. In the United States, this is often a medium sized city such as Cincinnati or Buffalo. The total marketing plan for the item, including advertising, promotions, and distribution tactics, is “rolled out” and implemented in the test market, and measurements of product awareness, market penetration, and market share are made. While these data are used to estimate potential sales to a larger national market, the emphasis here is usually on “fine-tuning” the total marketing plan and insuring that no problems or potential embarrassments have been overlooked. For example, Proctor and Gamble extensively test-marketed its Pringles potato chip product made with the fat substitute Olestra to assure that the product would be broadly acceptable to the market.

Scanner Panel Data procedures have recently been developed that permit demand experimentation on existing brands and products. In these procedures, a large set of household customers agrees to participate in an ongoing study of their grocery buying habits. Panel members agree to submit information about the number of individuals in the household, their ages, household income, and so forth. Whenever they buy groceries at a supermarket participating in the research, their household identity is captured along with the identity and price of every item they purchased. This is straightforward due to the use of UPC codes and optical scanners at checkout. This procedure results in a rich database of observed customer buying behavior. The analyst is in a position to see each purchase in light of the full set of alternatives to the chosen brand that were available in the store at the time of purchase, including all other brands, prices, sizes, discounts, deals, coupon offers, and so on. Statistical models such as discrete choice models can be used to analyze the relationships in the data. The manufacturer and merchandiser are now in a position to test a price promotion and estimate its probable effect on brand loyalty and brand switching behavior among customers in general. This approach can develop valuable insight into demand behavior at the customer level, but once again it can be difficult to extend this insight directly into demand forecasts in the logistics system.

Relational/Causal Approaches to Forecasting

Suppose our firm operates retail stores in a dozen major cities, and we now decide to open a new store in a city where we have not operated before. We will need to forecast what the sales at the new store are likely to be. To do this, we could collect historical sales data from all of our existing stores. For each of these stores we could also collect relevant data related to the city’s population, average income, the number of competing stores in the area, and other presumably relevant data. These additional data are all referred to as explanatory variables or independent variables in the analysis. The sales data for the stores are considered to be the dependent variable that we are trying to explain or predict.

The basic premise is that if we can find relationships between the explanatory variables (population, income, and so forth) and sales for the existing stores, then these relationships will hold in the new city as well. Thus, by collecting data on the explanatory variables in the target city and applying these relationships, sales in the new store can be estimated. In some sense the posture here is that the explanatory variables “cause” the sales. Mathematical and statistical procedures are used to develop and test these explanatory relationships and to generate forecasts from them. Causal methods include the following:

Econometric models, such as discrete choice models and multiple regression. More elaborate systems involving sets of simultaneous regression equations can also be attempted. These advanced models are beyond the scope of this book and are not generally applicable to the task of forecasting demand in a logistics system.

Input-output models estimate the flow of goods between markets and industries. These models ensure the integrity of the flows into and out of the modeled markets and industries; they are used mainly in large-scale macro-economic analysis and were not found useful in logistics applications.

Life cycle models look at the various stages in a product’s “life” as it is launched, matures, and phases out. These techniques examine the nature of the consumers who buy the product at various stages (“early adopters,” “mainstream buyers,” “laggards,” etc.) to help determine product life cycle trends in the demand pattern. Such models are used extensively in industries such as high technology, fashion, and some consumer goods facing short product life cycles. This class of model is not distinct from the others mentioned here as the characteristics of the product life cycle can be estimated using, for example, econometric models. They are mentioned here as a distinct class because the overriding “cause” of demand with these models is assumed to be the life cycle stage the product is in.

Simulation models are used to model the flows of components into manufacturing plants based on MRP schedules and the flow of finished goods throughout distribution networks to meet customer demand. There is little theory to building such simulation models. Their strength lies in their ability to account for many time lag effects and complicated dependent demand schedules. They are, however, typically cumbersome and complicated.

Time Series Approaches to Forecasting

Although all four approaches are sometimes used to forecast demand, generally the time-series approach is the most appropriate and the most accurate approach to generate the large number of short-term, SKU level, locally dis-aggregated forecasts required to operate a physical distribution system over a reasonably short time horizon. On the other hand, these time series techniques may not prove to be very accurate. If the firm has knowledge or insight about future events, such as sales promotions, which can be expected to dramatically alter the otherwise expected demand, some incorporation of this knowledge into the forecast through judgmental or relational means is also appropriate.

Many different time series forecasting procedures have been developed. These techniques include very simple procedures such as the Moving Average and various procedures based on the related concept of Exponential Smoothing. These procedures are extensively used in logistics systems, and they will be thoroughly discussed in this chapter. Other more complex procedures, such as the Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Models, are also available and are sometimes used in logistics systems. However, in most cases these more sophisticated tools have not proven to be superior to the simpler tools, and so they are not widely used in logistics systems.

Generally, there are four major methods used in qualitative research:

• Observation
• Analyzing texts and documents
• Interviews
• Recording and transcribing

In this research, mainly interviews (primary sources) and analyzing texts and documents (secondary sources) are used. In qualitative research, the textual analysis is concerned with understanding participants’ categories. Interviews, in qualitative research, are mostly semi-structured and have open questions to small samples. The advantage of the qualitative approach in this research, by getting in close proximity to the travel agents, is that one is able to best explain and describe the dynamic processes in the local travel agency sector. The best approach to this research would be to obtain in depth and rich information about how to respond to the challenges they currently face by interviewing managers or owners of local travel agencies to gain primary data.

Further, textual analysis will be conducted in order to get secondary data. The knowledge this method is able to create would be sufficient to answer the research question in combination with secondary data gained about the travel agencies. In detail, this means that the body of knowledge will include the influence of globalization on the local market, if it exists at all and if, in what form. Thus, knowledge will be gained about the development of the local market and the current position and strategy of the company.

The interview

The interview is in all probability the most extensively employed method in qualitative research. It is the flexibility of the interview that makes it so attractive. Interviewing, the transcription of interviews, and the analysis of transcripts require hard work and are all very time-consuming, but they can be more easily accommodated into researchers’ personal lives. In spite of the sharp increase of terms describing types of interview in qualitative research, the two main types are the unstructured interview and the semi-structured interview. Sometimes the term qualitative interview is employed to encapsulate these two types of interview.

Qualitative interviewing is usually very different from interviewing in quantitative research in several ways. For instance, the approach in qualitative research tends to be much less structured. In quantitative research, the approach is structured to make the most of the reliability and validity of measurement of key concepts. In qualitative interviewing, there is generally much greater interest in the interviewee’s point of view; in quantitative research, the interview reflects the researcher’s concerns. Furthermore, in qualitative interviewing, interviewers can switch more easily from any schedule or guide that is being used. For example, they can ask new questions that follow up interviewees’ replies and can change the order of questions. In quantitative research, this is unthinkable, because they will compromise the standardization of the interview process and therefore the reliability and validity of measurement. In qualitative interviewing, the researcher wants relatively rich and detailed answers; in quantitative research the interview is supposed to produce answers that can be coded and processed rapidly. Another difference would be that in qualitative interviewing, the interviewee may be interviewed on more than one and sometimes even several occasions. As opposed to quantitative research where unless the research is longitudinal in character, the person will be interviewed on one occasion only.

Unstructured and semi-structured interview

Qualitative interviewing, to a large degree, varies in the approach taken by the interviewer. Generally, two major types are distinguished; the unstructured interview and the semi-structured interview. As far as the unstructured interview is concerned, there may be just a single question that the interviewer asks and the interviewee is then allowed to respond quite freely, with the interviewer merely responding to points that seem interesting of being followed up. In fact, unstructured interviewing tends to be very much like to a normal conversation.

When a semi-structured interview is conducted, the researcher has a list of questions or rather specific topics to be covered, but the interviewee has a great deal of flexibility in how to reply. Questions that are not included in the guide may be asked spontaneously on aspects mentioned by interviewers. Nonetheless, all of the questions will be asked and the same questions will be used from interviewee to interviewee.

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## Deming’s Profound Knowledge consists of four elements. Answer the following three parts relating to the “variation” element Answer

Deming’s Profound Knowledge consists of four elements. Answer the following three parts relating to the “variation” element of Deming’s Profound Knowledge. Your discussion should relate to this element of Deming’s Profound Knowledge and not variation in general.

1. Explain how a quincunx can be used to explain variation. (10 points)
2. Why is understanding variation important, and what do we need to do about it? (10 points)
3. What tools do we need to use to understand variation, and why is using these tools important to our decision-making process? (10 points)

Ans1: In a quincunx, small balls are dropped from a hole in the top and it hit a series of pins as they fall toward collection boxes. The pins cause each ball to move randomly to the left or the right as it strikes each pin on its way down. The frequency distribution of where the balls land is symmetrical bell shape of the distribution. Even though all balls are dropped from the same position, the end result shows variation. The same kind of variation exists in any production and service process, due to factors inherent in the design of the system, which cannot easily be controlled.

Ans2: Excessive variation results in products that fail or perform erratic and inconsistent service. Management should understand variation and work to reduce variation through improvements in technology, process design, and training. With less variation, both the producer and consumer benefit. The consumer has the advantage of knowing that all products and services have similar quality characteristics and will perform or be delivered consistently. Statistical methods are the primary tools used to identify and quantify variation. Every employee in the firm should be familiar with statistical techniques and other problem-solving tools. Statistics can then become the common language that every employee from top executives to line workers uses to communicate with one another.

Ans 3: Statistical methods are the primary tools used to identify and quantify variation. At the organizational level, Statistical methods helps manager and top management understand the business system , use data from the organization to assess performance and encourage employees to experiment to improve their work. Thus, every manager and employee can benefit from statistical thinking and using total quality tools in their decision making process at the organization, process and individual level.

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## The use of human embryonic stem provides future hope for the treatment of many diseases Answer

The use of human embryonic stem provides future hope for the treatment of many diseases. Stem cell research helps to understand basic mechanisms of development and differentiation of humans beings and it also provides hope to find treatments of some common diseases like diabetes, injury of spinal cord, Parkinson’s disease, and myocardial infarction (heart attack). However, this stem cell research faces many legal and ethical obligations many which are affecting the research for development of these cell-replacement therapies. The greatest challenge for this research is to maintain respect for human life and overcome the ethical concerns. The origin of pluripotent stem cell lines from oocytes and embryos is filled with differences of opinion about the inception of human personhood. There are various concerns arising related to sensitive downstream research. There are concerns regarding the permission to donate materials for research, early clinical trials of hSC therapies, and error of hSC research. These ethical and policy concerns are required to be examined along with scientific challenges to make certain that stem cell research is carried out in an ethically and legally suitable method.

Stem cell research raises general questions about the suitable distribution of resources of government and private in the field of biomedical science. In the United States, the matter of when human life begins has been extremely divisive. People know that embryos grow to become human beings and if embryos are implanted in the uterus of female, she can give birth to a normal child. However, some people believe that an embryo is a living individual with the same moral significance as an adult or a new born child. Because of religious faith and moral sincerity, people believe that “human life begins at conception” and thus embryo is a person. According to this analysis, an embryo has interests and rights that must be respected. Therefore, from this viewpoint, to take a blastocyst and remove the inner cell mass to obtain an embryonic stem cell line is equivalent to murder. When frozen embryos are donated then many ethical concerns arises such as, informed approval from the woman or couple donating the embryo, approval from donors of the gamete who are involved in the conception of the embryo, and the privacy of information of donor.

Stem cell research can provide information that will allow certain individuals to live longer and improved lives. It can also help to treat diseases whose cure has not been found out till now. However, effectiveness of treatment using stem cell research is also a major concern. People who participate in debates regarding stem cell technology should also identify lack in the health system. Encouragement for stem cell research should include support for a better health system. If there is no improvement in the health care systems then any curative benefits which can be developed through stem cell research will be unfairly restricted to fortunate patients who can have access to best health care services.

Reference:

Dresser, R. (2010). Stem Cell Research as Innovation: Expanding the Ethical and Policy Conversation. Journal of Law Medicine & Ethics38(2), 332-341. doi:10.1111/j.1748-720X.2010.00492.x

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## An independent movie producer with a modest but loyal fan base is short of funds for her next movie Answer

Crowd Funding:-

Crowd funding is the approach in which the funds are raised by monetary contribution from a huge amount of people mostly through internet. It is the tool to raise funds which is beyond the general tools of raising funds. There are different types of crowd funding available such as reward based, debt based, litigation, charity and equity. In reward base system, there are two types of methods such as keep it all and all or nothing. In Keep it All method the entrepreneurs set a fund raising goal and keeps the full amount of money with them whether the goal is achieved or not but in the other method they only kept money with them if the specific goal is achieved for which the fund was raised. In equity financing different individual supports the efforts of other organization on the collective basis by providing the finance. In debt based the borrowers apply online general for free and their applications are evaluated by some software deployed at platforms through which there credit worthiness and interest rate are also identified. In litigation method the investors invest in legal cases and get the money if the cases get success. Last but not least, the charitable method includes the efforts of the individual basis on the collective basis to support charitable causes. There could be different positive and negative elements which might affect the producer by raising the funds via crowd funding. The positive issues could be that the people who are interested in the concept of the movie and those who are real fans will give their money to the producer. Another benefit the product could have is if he uses the reward base system to raise fund then he can set the percentage to be given to those who will invest the money if the movies got hit. Negative issues he might face includes that it will take much time to generate so huge funds through this type of techniques. Those who are not fans and do not trust the producer will not give their money to support as well as other methods such as charity and litigation could not be used by the producer because the movies is not legal neither it contains any charitable causes. The advantage to the movie producer will be that he will not have to pay any interest payments if he uses the methods of crowd funding except the debt funding. The dis-advantage to the investor could be that he might lose his money if the goal is not achieved or the loss of extra money which he could get if the movie gets success.

Recommendation:-

All the methods are the good enough according to their qualities and selection of the method depends on the need of the fund raiser. For the producer the reward base system is the most appropriate way to raise the funds for the movie because in it there are several benefits exists for him. Firstly, he will not have to pay any interest payments unlike debt method. Secondly, he can leverage the investor to attract more funds by putting incentive like the share in the profit if the movie goes hit, etc.

Reference:-

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## As a project manager, dealing with conflict is part of the job. There are many sources of conflict; one source Answer

As a project manager, dealing with conflict is part of the job. There are many sources of conflict; one source that is often overlooked is the manager. Based on the Week 4 reading and lecture, what managerial actions can cause workplace conflict? What can be done to remedy these issues?

The Managerial Actions That Cause Workplace Conflicts are:
Poor communications – When employees are not informed of major decisions that affect their workplaces or they are not involved in the decision-making process, then it may cause serious workplace discontent or conflict. This can cause serious conflict between the manager and their subordinates.

Resource allocation and alignment is not proper – When there is inadequate nos. of resources or unskilled resources are allocated to the project, this will lead to project uncertainties and eventually, the employees start blaming their managers for the project failure.

Conflicting values or actions and interpersonal dynamics – Sometimes, there can be conflicting value systems prevailing between the employee and their managers. There could be incompatibility in the working relationship and way of thinking which could lead to the workplace Conflicts.

Inconsistent, missing, or uninformed leadership – Lot of times, managers don’t take a firm stand on the issues in the work place which leads to employee dissatisfaction and affects their morale. Also, the managers may not be consistent in their approach and often seem changing their approach in the work place.

Following things can be done to remedy these issues
– Managers should regularly review job descriptions and get employee’s input. They should also make sure that there is complete clarity of roles and responsibilities to the employees.
– Managers should take initiative to build strong relationships with all subordinates and regularly meet them and have One-O-One meeting with them.
– They should get continuous updates, reports, their accomplishments, challenges and issues from the team members.
– Should do career planning of their employees and have a proper training plan for each of their employees.
– Also, managers should consider having anonymous suggestion box in the workplace in which employees can provide suggestions. This will make sure that suggestions and inputs to improve the workplace are incorporated in company’s policies and the company is able to take care of employee’s concerns.

References: http://managementhelp.org/interpersonal/conflict.htm

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## An open label study (where participants are aware of the treatment they are taking) is conducted to assess the time to pain relief Answer

1. An open label study (where participants are aware of the treatment they are taking) is conducted to assess the time to pain relief following treatment in patients with arthritis. The following linear regression equations are estimated relating time to pain relief measured in minutes (dependent variable) to participant’s age (in years), gender (coded 1 for males and 0 for females) and severity of disease (a score ranging from 0 to 100 with higher scores indicative of more severe arthritis):

Time to Pain Relief = -24.2 + 0.9 Age

Time to Pain Relief = 11.8 + 19.3 Male Gender

Time to Pain Relief = 3.2 + 0.4 Severity

Time to Pain Relief = -19.8 + 0.50 Age + 10.9 Male Gender + 0.2 Severity

1. What is the expected time to pain relief for a male following treatment?Time to Pain Relief = 11.8 + 19.3 * 1 = 31.1 minutes
2. What is the expected time to pain relief for a participant aged 50 following treatment?Time to Pain Relief = -24.2 + 0.9 * 50 = 20.8 minutes
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## What are the advantages and disadvantages of the computer-assisted audit technique known as parallel simulation Answer

What are the advantages and disadvantages of the computer-assisted audit technique known as parallel simulation?

The advantages of using parallel simulation is the tests can be run independently. The sample size is not costly to expand and real data is used so it allows verification to source documents.

The disadvantage could be the client’s software out preforms the auditor’s software or the auditors needs to be trained to understand the clients programs.

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## The Logic in the Motor Vehicle Brake System Answer

The Logic in the Motor Vehicle Brake System Answer

The Brake System

Name:

Institution of economics

The Brake System

The Logic in the Motor Vehicle Brake System

The brake system is very essential in the cooling of the motor vehicle systems. The system works in the way that the pump moves the cooling device from the brake of the vehicle to the motor vehicle engine cooling system. This provides a thermal mass in order to dissolve brake energy. The breaks are kept cold through the taking off of the load from the service breaks. Furthermore, this results in reduction in maintenance of the vehicle and decrease, in the pedal effort. This also leads to increase in lifespan of the brakes of the vehicle. Cooler brakes also guarantee the safety of the vehicle. Owen and Eichhorn (2007) assert that, the cooling of the breaks decreases the stopping distance of the motor vehicle, hence, improving efficiency and effectiveness of the vehicle. The system has a hand-controlled unit, which contains five power settings. These settings enable the adjustment of the strength of the break with regard to an individual’s need. These settings include revolutionary braking cruise control, which enables the setting of maximum speed when navigating through slopes. It leads to maintaining of a constant speed according to the grade variance.

History of the Brake System

The first brake lever was invented at the times of Roman Empire. This lever exerted pressure upon a wooden block against a cart wheel in a bid to slow the speed of a cart through the use of friction. This brake technology prevailed for some time. Furthermore, the early nomadic people used this technological principle of pressing the block against the wheel of the cart. However, there is the incorporation of the disk brakes and other back-up systems into the working of the block-wheel brake system. Cast iron brake shoes have replaced the wooden blocks which were employed by the early folks. Notwithstanding, there were frequent runaways, which called for the introduction of more efficient braking system.

The 20th Century

This century brought a paradigm shift in the motor vehicle industry. This owes to the fact that, there was the advancement of the braking system in this century. The development of the trucking and the automotive industry culminate in the updating of the braking system. For instance, the old vehicles employed band brakes. This was followed by the introduction of the drum brakes, which were mechanically applied through a linkage. This was followed by a major advancement in the braking technology during the introduction of the hydraulic systems in 1920-1940 (Mavrigian and Carley, 2008). The system introduced consistent force distribution. This has resulted in a decrease in stoppage distance by a great magnitude. This efficiency results from the improvement in the fade resistance. The only common feature of the hydraulic system and the drum brake are that the latter’s design flaw happens to be the thermal mass. This implies that, the application of brakes increases the temperature. This aspect is manifest in the race cars, which exhibited red-hot brakes during racing. The stresses increase when the brake of the motor vehicle gets hot. This also results in a decrease, in the car performance. This is an enormous challenge in the motor industry. This owes to the fact that, it is difficult to design sufficient braking, which can guarantee absorption of all the thermal energy required by the system. The disc brakes were prevalent during the 1960’s. They were applied in cars and trucks.

Retarders

The failure of the friction brakes to absorb energy for long durations led to the invention of the retarders, which provide a retarding force to the braking system. These devices help in the application of brakes especially in sloppy areas. Moreover, they provide safety and a prolonged economic life of the brakes. The safety this device provides is due to the ability of energy absorption. On the other hand, the lifespan of the brakes is prolonged due to the reduction on the operating temperature and reduction in the long downgrades usage. The most common retarders used in the modern world include the engine brakes, electromagnetic, hydrodynamic and exhaust brake retarders.

Engine Brakes

These kinds of retarders are appropriate for large tractors and trailers. The retarders absorb energy through the conversion of the diesel engine into an air compressor device. However, this retarder’s shortcoming is that its working produces much noise, hence, rendering it ineffective in some parts of the world.

Exhaust Brakes

These retarders are applicable in diesel engines, which have standard transmissions. They are ineffective in automatic gas engines of automobiles. They are strategically positioned after the exhaust manifold in order to exert pressure on the engine exhaust. This is possible through closure of the gate valve of the hydraulic system. The retarders are efficient at high speeds. In addition, they are the best to apply in downhill braking, because they perform best with appropriate powertrain.

Electromagnetic Retarders

This category of retarders provides the retarding force through the shearing of magnetic flux lines. They are a driveline braking system, whereby the automobile’s engine is exclusive. They are applied in the heavy duty applications with regard to similar retarders. However, they can be separately applied without any back-up in buses for transit and school buses. According to Mavrigian and Carley (2008), these retarders draw heavily on the electrical energy and the long installation time. Furthermore, they are extremely heavy, hence, making their use challenging. On the other hand, electromagnetic retarders are preferred by many customers given that they offer much braking for automobiles.

Hydrodynamic Retarders

This category of retarders also qualifies as driveline auxiliary braking system. However, they provide retardation through shearing of oil fluid. Kinetic energy is produced in this process of shearing. This energy is converted into heat energy, which is transmitted to the engine cooling system. The drawback of this type of retarders is the loss incurred due to redundancy. This owes to the fact that, the oil in the unit produces a drag which wastes fuel, hence, increasing the cost of automobile maintenance. However, the hydrodynamic retarders are appropriate for the long-distance trucks and transit buses given that the vehicles are used all the time.

The D-Braking Modern System

This state-of-the-art technological model will advance the efficiency and effectiveness of the braking systems due to the sophistication of the model. For instance, it will result in the reduction of cost of automobile maintenance given the easy installation procedures and low fuel energy consumption. Furthermore, the braking system will be effective both at high and low speeds. The system also eliminates the need for electromagnetic field. In addition, there is protection against skidding guaranteed by the effective braking cruise control. The future braking system also eliminates the heavy weight associated with the previous braking systems. There is no loss of fuel through drags manifest in the previous braking systems. This makes the system quite efficient and cost effective to use in automobiles. Eichhorn and Owen (2007) posit that the D-braking system incorporates anti-locking braking, which accurately co-ordinates wheels. This co-ordination is due to the sensor attached to each wheel to regulate brake pressure. This enables the wheels to match in the speed range.

Features of the Modern Brake System

• The pressure of the system bases on the heat generation capability of the system.
• Specific procedures are followed in the application of the braking system. This sets it apart from other braking systems which were invented in the past.
• There is a complex Eigensolver which is used for squeal analysis. This device eliminates the need for programming and other complicated procedures.
• The structured thermal regulation for the system’s heating and has the correct inclusion of system damping, which helps in the squeal computations.
• It enables stopping of the vehicle on ice given that it avoids lock-ups and skidding of the automobile. This helps in saving of endangered lives of people caught in emergency situations.
• There is lower insurance cost incurred by the users of this braking system. This is because there is a low probability of accidents and there is discount offer for all the clients who have installed the systems in their vehicles.
• The system increases the value of the automobile hence making the item easily resalable in the automobile market. In fact, the system is almost a requirement on every vehicle because of the efficiency associated with the updated braking system.
• It has traction control whereby technology monitors the wheels traction on the road. This is done through the use of sensors attached on the wheels of the vehicle. This traction mechanism sets this modern braking system from the rest of the braking systems.
• It has SIMULIA, which gives the user simulations in the use of the braking system. These simulations include Abaqus, simulation automation and optimization capabilities. This simulation helps in solving all engineering queries. For instance, Abaqus helps in the brake design.            The braking pad is environment friendly, because it comprises a dark grey friction material. In addition, the braking pads reduce noise, hence, there is no sound pollution. Moreover, they reduce the rumbling effect during the running of the brakes. There is regulation of temperatures, hence, no overheating is experienced. In this regard fire outbreaks are contained. These efficiencies culminate in improved performance and reduction of braking system stresses. What is more, there is little probability of sparks during the running of the system.        ReferencesOwen, C. E., & Eichhorn, L. (2007). Classroom manual for automotive brake systems. Clifton

•             Park, NY: Thomson-Delmar Learning.
• Mavrigian, M., & Carley, L. W. (2008), Brake systems: OEM & racing brake technology. New York: HPBooks.
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## A farmer collects soil samples from the field because she is curious about the possible microbes Answer

A farmer collects soil samples from the field because she is curious about the possible microbes that might live there. Using a microscope she noticed two different kinds of cells: One is small with no separate internal structures; the other is much larger and contains several different internal structures. What are the names of the two types of cells? Describe two structures that are found in both types of cells and two structures that are only found in the larger type of cells.
2. Syndrome X is an inherited disease that only develops in individuals who are homozygous recessive for gene X. An individual with Syndrome X has parents that do not have this disease. What is the parents’ genotype for gene X? What is the probability that they may have another child with Syndrome X? Explain your answers.
3. What type of ecosystems can be found in the area where you live? Describe a food web in one of these ecosystems and one example of how human activities have affected this ecosystem.
4. Explain why it is a good choice environmentally to eat a vegetarian diet using what you have learned about energy transfer in food chains and the second law of thermodynamics. Include the following terms in your answer: herbivore, omnivore, trophic level, energy. Hint: think about the resources and energy used to produce different types of food.